Tropical Storm Vongfong soaks Sasebo, Iwakuni, heads to Kanto Plain

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Super Typhoon Phanfone can be seen south of Japan in this false-color satellite image taken Saturday, Oct. 4, 2014. (NOAA.gov)
From Stripes.com
Super Typhoon Phanfone can be seen south of Japan in this false-color satellite image taken Saturday, Oct. 4, 2014. (NOAA.gov)

Tropical Storm Vongfong soaks Sasebo, Iwakuni, heads to Kanto Plain

by: Dave Ornauer | .
Stars and Stripes | .
published: October 13, 2014

2 p.m. Monday, Oct. 13, Japan time:Tropical Storm Vongfong has made its closest approach to Sasebo Naval Base and is on course to pass 97 miles southeast of Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni in a couple of hours, bringing 29- to 35-mph sustained winds and 40- to 46-mph gusts and between 2 to 3 inches of rain the rest of the day. Similar is expected at Kanto Plain bases tonight into Tuesday, with rapid clearing by the afternoon. All mainland bases remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch. Barring any sudden changes, PST will (finally) check out regarding Vongfong.

11 p.m. Sunday, Oct. 12, Japan time: 18th Wing commanding officer has issued seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4 for U.S. bases on Okinawa as of 10:30 p.m. Sunday.
 
6 p.m. Sunday, Oct. 12, Japan time: Although Vongfong is weakening rapidly, it's still forecast to be a mid-grade tropical storm as it roars northeast past Sasebo Naval Base, 78 miles southeast at about 5 a.m. Monday. Fleet Activities Sasebo's official Facebook page predicts sustained 46- to 52-mph winds and 63-mph gusts between 6 and 9 a.m. Monday, along with between 2 to 4 inches of rain. Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni should see sustained 18- to 29-mph winds and 35-mph gusts Monday afternoon as Vongfong passes some 98 miles southeast at about 5 p.m. Monday.

4:45 p.m. Sunday, Oct. 12, Japan time: Vongfong has been downgraded to a tropical storm and is clearly losing its punch and intensity. All U.S. bases in Japan and Okinawa are in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch. PST will continue to watch Vongfong in case of any unexpected strengthening or regeneration.
 
From the Okinawa crisis management agency, 23 people reported injured, three seriously, from the storm. Evacuation advisory remains issued to 90,011 homes and 209,814 residents, while 434 residents remain in public shelters. Four homes flooded in Ginowan and Uruma, one home wiped out in northern Kunigami and three homes partially damaged. Landslides reported in three sites, Naha, Motobu and Kunigami. As of 10 a.m., 46,600 homes were without power. Roads and bridges in 16 locations remained closed to traffic, including the Okinawa Expressway.
 

3 p.m. Sunday, Oct. 12, Japan time: Vongfong has been downgraded to a tropical storm and is clearly losing its punch and intensity. All U.S. bases in Japan and Okinawa except Naval Air Facility Atsugi are in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch; Atsugi remains in TCCOR 4. PST will continue to watch Vongfong in case of any unexpected strengthening or regeneration.
 
From the Okinawa crisis management agency, 23 people reported injured, three seriously, from the storm. Evacuation advisory remains issued to 90,011 homes and 209,814 residents, while 434 residents remain in public shelters. Four homes flooded in Ginowan and Uruma, one home wiped out in northern Kunigami and three homes partially damaged. Landslides reported in three sites, Naha, Motobu and Kunigami. As of 10 a.m., 46,600 homes were without power. Roads and bridges in 16 locations remained closed to traffic, including the Okinawa Expressway.
 

9:30 a.m. Sunday, Oct. 12, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-R (recovery). Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are no longer happening. But those same winds have wrought some significant damage. Downed power lines. Severed tree limbs, even whole trees. Flooding in low-lying areas. This doesn’t mean it’s OK to venture outdoors. Time to remain indoors until the all-clear is sounded after damage assessment teams get things in order.
 

8 a.m. Sunday, Oct. 12, Japan time: No longer the powerful menace it once was, Typhoon Vongfong continues to diminish as it moves over cooler sea surface and into areas of strong vertical wind shear just north of Okinawa.
 
U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-E (emergency); expect that to change to TCCOR 1-R (recovery) soon. Again, that is not the signal that everything is all clear. That’s the time that staff civil fans out to assess damage and make repairs. Downed power lines and tree limbs and flooding are the biggest threats. Stay inside until the all-clear is sounded.
 
Vongfong’s closest point of approach to Okinawa was 24 miles northeast of Kadena Air Base at 11:15 p.m. Saturday. Strongest winds occurred at 3 p.m. Saturday, 62-mph sustained and 89-mph gusts at Kadena, while northeast Okinawa saw 76-mph sustained winds and 108-mph gusts. As much as 24 inches of rain fell in some locations.
 
All eyes turn north and northeast on bases in Japan’s main islands, as Vongfong is forecast to weaken into a tropical storm, then accelerate rapidly over Kyushu, Shikoku and Honshu over the next day or so.
 
Fleet Activities Sasebo and Yokosuka each remain in TCCOR 3, while Naval Air Facility Atsugi is in TCCOR 4 and Yokota Air Base in TCCOR Storm Watch.
 

1 a.m. Sunday, Oct. 12, Japan time: Here’s the latest wind forecast timeline for Okinawa from Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight, which shows reductions in maximum wind values:
 
-- Maximum 81-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts for Kadena, occurring now.
-- Maximum 86-mph sustained winds and 104-mph gusts for northeast Okinawa, occurring now.
-- Winds diminishing below 58 mph, 9 a.m. Sunday.
-- Winds diminishing below 40 mph, 6 p.m. Sunday.
 
Midnight Saturday, Oct. 11, Japan time: The worst appears to be over for Okinawa, as Typhoon Vongfong is passing over the island packing sustained 86-mph winds and 104-mph gusts. It seems calm now, but the back side of the storm has yet to hit the island, even though Vongfong’s intensity has diminished. This is not the time to be complacent. Rather, remain vigilant until the all-clear is sounded.
 
From the Okinawa crisis management offices: As of 10 p.m., 22 people reported injured, three seriously. Evacuation was recommended to 64,761 households with 152,408 residents, and 276 households and their 751 residents remain in public shelters. Three homes were flooded and three partially damaged in Ginowan. A vehicle in Ginowan was hit by an uprooted tree. A landslide was reported at a location in Naha. Some 43,300 homes were without power.
 

 

9:15 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 11, Japan time: Fleet Activities Sasebo remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. Sustained destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are not forecast to occur, but the wind forecast timeline still depicts a wet, windy end to the three-day weekend.
 
9 a.m. Sunday, 18- to 23-mph winds, 35-mph gusts.
 3 p.m. Sunday, 35- to 40-mph winds, 52-mph gusts.
 Midnight Sunday, 40- to 46-mph sustained winds, 69-mph gusts.
 3 a.m. Monday, 40- to 46-mph sustained winds, 63-mph gusts.
 6 a.m. Monday, 35- to 40-mph sustained winds, 52-mph gusts.
 9 a.m. Monday, 29- to 35-mph sustained winds, 52-mph gusts.
 Noon Monday, 29- to 35-mph sustained winds, 46-mph gusts.
 3 p.m. Monday, 18- to 23-mph sustained winds, 35-mph gusts.
 
Between 3 and 5 inches of rain forecast.
 
9 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 11, Japan time: Latest wind forecast timeline from Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight shows a reduction in maximum winds for Okinawa Saturday evening. But more rain is on the way as well.
 
-- Maximum sustained 92-mph winds and 110-mph gusts for Kadena, 11 p.m. Saturday.
-- Maximum 98-mph winds and 115-mph gusts for northeast Okinawa, 11 p.m. Saturday.
-- Winds diminishing below 58 mph, 9 a.m. Sunday.
-- Winds diminishing below 40 mph, 6 p.m. Sunday.
-- 29-mph cross winds no longer occurring, 9 p.m. Monday.
 
Weather flight now forecasts between 24 and 26 inches of rain.
 

6 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 11, Japan time: Typhoon Vongfong still appears to be headed directly toward the heart of Okinawa, but the wind values have diminshed by a good 25 mph in the last six hours. New wind forecast timeline coming in the next four hours. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-E (emergency). Stay indoors. Don't take chances. Get your safe on and keep your safe on,

Okinawa! 3 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 11, Japan time: Fleet Activities Yokosuka and its satellite stations have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are possible within 48 hours. No notification of any closures or suspension of services yet. Expect TCCOR upgrade Sunday or sooner if warranted.

12:45 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 11, Japan time: Latest wind forecast timeline from Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight:

■ Maximum 110-mph sustained winds and 132-mph gusts for Kadena, 11 p.m. Saturday.
■ Maximum 115-mph sustained winds and 143-mph gusts for northeast Okinawa, 11 p.m. Saturday.
■ Winds diminishing below 58 mph, 11 a.m. Sunday.
■ Winds diminishing below 40 mph, 7 p.m. Sunday.
■ 29-mph crosswinds no longer occurring, 11 p.m. Monday.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-E (emergency).

Okinawa’s crisis management office as of 10 a.m. Saturday reports that two people have been seriously injured while 10 others sustained slight injuries due to Typhoon Vongfong.

A total of 2,459 households and 4,673 residents were advised to evacuate their homes while 149 households and 410 people took shelter at public facilities throughout Okinawa prefecture.

The Okinawa expressway is closed, along with roads and bridges in 13 locations. No damage to roads or landslides have been reported.

According to the Okinawa Electric Power Company, 177,000 homes were without power.

Naha Airport is closed all day Saturday, airport officials said. More than 450 flights have been canceled. Japan Air Lines said 19,613 passengers have been affected and Sky Mark said 5,800 were stranded. No word on how many All Nippon Airways passengers have been affected.

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Noon Saturday, Oct. 11, Japan time: Fleet Activities Sasebo has set Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are possible within 48 hours. Typhoon Vongfong is forecast to pass about 140 miles southeast of Sasebo Naval Base around mid-morning Monday as a Category 1-equivalent typhoon, 74-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts at its center.

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11:30 a.m. Saturday, Oct. 11, Japan time: It's happening. Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-E (emergency) is in effect, and it could be for quite some time. Sustained 58-mph winds and greater are occurring, and in some cases much higher in the northeast areas of Okinawa. Joint Typhoon Warning Center depicts Typhoon Vongfong making a direct hit on the central portions of the island early Sunday morning.

Latest forecast wind timeline from Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight:

--   Maximum 110-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts for Kadena, 11 p.m. Saturday.
--   Maximum 115-mph sustained winds and 143-mph gusts for northeast Okinawa, 11 p.m. Saturday.
--   Winds diminishing below 58 mph, 8 a.m. Sunday.
--   Winds diminishing below 40 mph, 10 p.m. Sunday.
--   29-mph crosswinds no longer occurring at Kadena, 3 a.m. Tuesday.

Get your safe on, Okinawa!

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1:30 a.m. Saturday, Oct. 11, Japan time: Okinawa campers: Expect an upgrade to Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-E (emergency) at any time. And expect it to last until 8 a.m. Sunday, perhaps beyond, followed by a lengthy TCCOR 1-R (recovery) period. This is a bad storm. It is headed directly at the heart of Okinawa.

Latest forecast wind timeline from Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight:

-- Sustained 58-mph winds, from 2 a.m. Saturday (any time, actually)
-- Maximum 104-mph sustained winds and 121-mph gusts for Kadena, 10 p.m. Saturday.
-- Maximum 115-mph sustained winds and 143-mph gusts for northeast Okinawa, 10 p.m. Saturday.
-- Winds diminishing below 58 mph, 8 a.m. Sunday.
-- Winds diminishing below 40 mph, 10 p.m. Sunday.
-- 29-mph crosswinds no longer occurring at Kadena, 3 a.m. Tuesday.

Next update at mid-morning Saturday. Get your safe on, Okinawa!

Midnight Friday, Oct. 10, Japan time: The news gets more grim with every passing
forecast track from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, which now depicts Typhoon Vongfong passing some 20 miles northeast of Kadena Air Base about 1 a.m. Sunday.

That would put Vongfong directly in the path of Camps Courtney, Hansen and Schwab along Okinawa’s east coast, packing sustained 121-mph winds and 155-mph gusts. A Category 3-equivalent storm. The worst the island has seen in quite some time.

And while the north side of Vongfong appears loaded with wind and heavy rain squalls, the back side is larger and potentially worse. Okinawa remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-C (caution). Expect an upgrade to that sometime mid-Saturday morning. Get your safe on, Okinawa. This is the one we’ve been fearing.

Vongfong is forecast to track at noon Monday some 146 miles southeast of Sasebo Naval Base, which remains in TCCOR Storm Watch. Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni is next on the itinerary; Vongfong is depicted to track 107 miles southeast six hours later; Iwakuni remains in TCCOR 3.

The good news from there is, Vongfong is forecast to race rather rapidly northeast, making landfall over eastern Shikoku Island just south of Osaka, then chug through the rugged terrain of the Japan Alps and rapidly losing power, blasting 95 miles northwest of Yokota Air Base, 105 miles northwest of Naval Air Facility Atsugi and Camp Zama and 127 miles northwest of Yokosuka Naval Base early Tuesday morning.

NAF Atsugi and Yokota each remain in TCCOR Storm Watch, while TCCOR 4 is set for Yokosuka. Their projected TCCOR timeline follows:

TCCOR 3 estimated setting at midnight Saturday.
TCCOR 2 estimated setting at midnight Sunday.
TCCOR 1 estimated setting at noon Monday.
TCCOR 1-C estimated setting at 3 p.m. Monday.
TCCOR 1-E (emergency) estimated setting from midnight Monday to 9 a.m. Tuesday.
TCCOR 1-R (recovery) estimated setting at 9 a.m. Tuesday.

Between 4 to 6 inches of rain are forecast for CFAY and its satellite stations.

Get your safe on, Japan!

7:20 p.m. Friday, Oct. 10, Japan time: Without question, this is a tropical cyclone season that entered like a lamb and is trying to exit like a lion.

U.S. bases on Okinawa have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-C (caution). Actual sustained winds of 40 mph or greater are occurring at a particular installation. Outdoor activity, except in direct support of urgent military missions, should discontinue. Exchange, commissary and other base facilities and services will close.

Latest forecast wind timeline from Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight:

-- Sustained 58-mph winds, from 10 a.m. Saturday.
-- Maximum sustained 74-mph winds and 104-mph gusts for Kadena, 10 p.m. Saturday.
-- Maximum sustained 115-mph winds and 143-mph gusts for northeast Okinawa, 10 p.m. Saturday.
-- Winds diminishing below 58 mph, 8 a.m. Sunday.
-- Winds diminishing below 40 mph, 5 p.m. Sunday.
-- 29-mph crosswinds no longer occurring, 3 a.m. Tuesday.

Fleet Activities Sasebo, Yokota Air Base and Naval Air Facility Atsugi remain in TCCOR Storm and Fleet Activities Yokosuka in TCCOR 4. CFAY’s official Facebook page says expect upgrade to TCCOR 1 by noon Monday, with the onset of destructive 58-mph winds expected about midnight Monday.
 

7 p.m. Friday, Oct. 10, Japan time: Of all the Tropical Cyclone Conditions of Readiness, the least predictable one is 1-R, or recovery. There’s no formula for how much time it remains in effect after it’s issued by the 18th Wing commanding officer. Because it’s subject to how quickly staff civil fans out to assess damage, limbs and trees, power lines, flooding and other things, then how quickly those problems are repaired. After a mild cyclone, that might mean an hour or two. After a big storm – as Vongfong appears to be – 1-R could last much longer, several hours, even the better part of a day. Patience is key. Listen to official channels. Though peak winds have passed, it may be more dangerous to be outside during 1-R than at any other time except 1-E, because of those present hazards.

5 p.m. Friday, Oct. 10, Japan time: Typhoon Vongfong’s center, also known as the eye, will be about 17 miles across by the time the cyclone reaches its current forecast point of approach, about 24 miles northeast of Kadena Air Base at about 2 a.m. Sunday.

Officials at Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight say it’s possible the very northeast portions of the island might see the eye. But just in case Vongfong’s forecast track continues edging west as it has most of Friday, and the eye reaches bigger portions of the island, here are a couple of tips to keep you safe.

The eye of any tropical cyclone can fool people into thinking that the storm is actually over and it’s safe to venture outside.

Nothing could be further from the truth. It’s as crucial a time as any to remain indoors.

As the eye passes over land, the winds cease to howl rather abruptly. As wide as Vongfong’s eye might be at that time, the calm that follows could last a couple of hours. The stars may be shining, the moon may be aglow, all may seem serene and peaceful … then, out of seemingly nowhere, the winds resume, in the opposite direction of before and sometimes more forceful than before.

Better safe than sorry. Best to remain indoors throughout the eye’s visit, during Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-E (emergency), and also through TCCOR 1-R (recovery), when base staff civil is out assessing damage, flooding, downed trees and power lines, etc.

New wind forecast timeline due out soon.

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3:30 p.m. Friday, Oct. 10, Japan time: Not good, folks. Peak projected winds have increased for Okinawa as Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s forecast track now takes Vongfong – no longer a super typhoon – about 43 miles northeast of Okinawa at around 9 p.m. Saturday. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2; expect an upgrade around midnight Friday.

Latest forecast wind timeline from Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight as of 1:30 p.m. Friday:

-- 29-mph crosswinds at Kadena, 6 p.m. Friday.
-- Sustained 40-mph winds, from 4 a.m. Saturday.
-- Sustained 58-mph winds, from noon Saturday.
-- Maximum 69-mph winds and 92-mph gusts at Kadena, 9 p.m. Saturday.
-- Maximum 115-mph winds and 143-mph gusts for northeast Okinawa, 10 p.m. Saturday.
-- Winds diminishing below 58 mph, 7 a.m. Sunday.
-- Winds diminishing below 40 mph, 4 p.m. Sunday.
-- 29-mph crosswinds no longer occurring at Kadena, 3 a.m. Tuesday.

Between 16 and 19 inches of rain also forecast for Okinawa.

Fleet Activities Sasebo announced on its Facebook page that Sasebo Naval Base has entered TCCOR Storm Watch. Vongfong is forecast to pass 146 miles southeast of Sasebo at about 3 a.m. Monday, still as a Category 1-equivalent cyclone.

Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni has entered TCCOR 3. Vongfong is forecast to pass 95 miles southeast of Iwakuni at about 1 p.m. Monday. Maximum forecast winds there are 23- to 29-mph sustained with 40-mph gusts and isolated gusts up to 52 mph. Between 2 to 3 inches of rain also forecast.

And U.S. bases in the Kanto Plain are gearing up as well. Yokota Air Base and Naval Air Facility Atsugi are in TCCOR Storm Watch, while Yokosuka Naval Base has entered TCCOR 4.

Get your safe on, Japan.
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12:30 p.m. Friday, Oct. 10, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are anticipated within 24 hours.

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7:45 a.m. Friday, Oct. 10, Japan time: Here’s the latest wind forecast timeline for Okinawa from Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3, but that’s likely to change early Friday afternoon. Super Typhoon Vongfong is forecast to pass 64 miles northeast of Kadena at about midnight Saturday.
■ 29-mph crosswinds at Kadena, from 6 p.m. Friday.
■ Sustained 40-mph winds, from 4 a.m. Saturday.
■ Sustained 58-mph winds, from 1 p.m. Saturday.
■ Maximum 63-mph sustained winds and 74-mph gusts at Kadena, midnight Saturday.
■ Maximum 86-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts for northeast Okinawa, 11 p.m. Saturday.
■ Winds diminishing below 58 mph, 7 a.m. Sunday.
■ Winds diminishing below 40 mph, 4 p.m. Sunday.
■ 29-mph crosswinds no longer occurring at Kadena, 3 a.m. Tuesday.

Time for preparing is waning. Get your safe on, Okinawa.

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12:45 a.m. Friday, Oct. 10, Japan time: Ever so slight reduction in wind projection for northeastern Okinawa and a little bit of good news in Super Typhoon Vongfong’s forecast track: 77 miles northeast of Okinawa at about midnight Saturday, 18 miles further away than previously forecast. PST is sure the island will take any sort of relief it can get.

New wind forecast timeline has been issued by Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight, some slight changes in the timing of onset and diminishing of wind values, as is always the case with the most unpredictable of weather events, the tropical cyclone:
■ 29-mph crosswinds at Kadena, from 6 p.m. Friday.
■ Sustained 40-mph winds, from 4 a.m. Saturday.
■ Sustained 58-mph winds, from 3 p.m. Saturday.
■ Maximum 63-mph sustained winds, 74-mph gusts at Kadena, 8 p.m. Saturday.
■ Maximum 81-mph sustained winds, 98-mph gusts for northeast Okinawa, 8 p.m. Saturday.
■ Winds diminishing below 58 mph, 6 a.m. Sunday.
■ Winds diminishing below 40 mph, 4 p.m. Sunday.
■ 29-mph crosswinds no longer occurring, 9 a.m. Tuesday.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. Expect an upgrade to that at mid-afternoon Friday.

The time for preparation is rapidly running out. Make that commissary, Exchange, ATM and gasoline stand run no later than Friday. And PST can’t emphasize enough, when the heavy stuff begins, don’t repeat the mistake of the six airmen from Georgia TDY to Kadena who ended up in the drink when they tried to take photographs along Okinawa’s northwest coast during Typhoon Phanfone’s passage earlier this week. Stay indoors. Be safe. You only get one chance.

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12:15 a.m. Friday, Oct. 10, Japan time: Doesn’t appear as if Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni is in for any destructive winds exceeding 58 mph when Vongfong is forecast to pass some 102 miles southeast at about 5 p.m. on Columbus Day. But the end of the three-day weekend promises to be a wet, windy one.

MCAS Iwakuni is in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4. Vongfong will have already begun interacting with the rugged, hilly terrain of Kyushu and Shikoku islands, increased vertical wind shear and cooler sea-surface temperatures, the big three that cause cyclones to weaken and diminish.

Iwakuni can expect sustained peak 23- to 40-mph winds and 46-mph gusts and between 2 to 3 inches of rain (as if the area needed any more rain, given all that fell during July and August).

 

 

2 p.m. Monday, Oct. 6, Japan time: Typhoon Phanfone is rapidly moving northeast out of the Tokyo-Kanto Plain area. Yokosuka Naval Base and Naval Air Facility Atsugi have issued Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-R (recovery) and Yokota Air Base has declared all clear. PST signs off regarding Phanfone and turns its full attention to Vongfong.

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8:30 a.m. Monday, Oct. 6, Japan time: Kanto bases remain in Phanfone’s crosshairs as it approaches the Tokyo area rapidly. Yokosuka Naval Base remains a prime target. All U.S. bases in the Kanto Plain remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1 or beyond. Yokosuka remains in TCCOR 1-C (caution). Forecast wind timeline for Yokosuka follows:

10 a.m. TCCOR 1-E (emergency) issued, 46- to 52-mph sustained winds, 86-mph gusts.
11 a.m. TCCOR 1-E still in effect, 52- to 63-mph sustained winds, 86-mph gusts.
1 p.m. TCCOR 1-R (recovery) issued, 23- to 29-mph sustained winds, 40-mph gusts.

Between 4 to 6 inches of rain expected.

Stay indoors. Get your safe on.

1 a.m. Monday, Oct. 6, Japan time: Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-C (caution) remains in effect for Fleet Activities Yokosuka and its satellite properties until about 9 a.m. Monday. Other Kanto Plain bases remain in TCCOR 1.

New wind forecast timeline for Yokosuka:

Early Monday morning, TCCOR 1-C remains in effect, 40- to 46-mph sustained winds, 69-mph gusts.
Late Monday morning, TCCOR 1-C still in effect, could upgrade to TCCOR 1-E (emergency) depending on wind values. Forecast calls for 52- to 58-mph sustained and 86-mph gusts .
Noon Monday, decreasing to 35- to 40-mph sustained and 58-mph gusts.
Mid-afternoon Monday, 23- to 29-mph sustained winds and 40-mph gusts.
Tapering off into Monday evening.

 

9:45 p.m. Sunday, Oct. 5, Japan time: Yokosuka Naval Base and its satellite properties have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-C (caution). That means actual winds exceeding 40 mph are occurring. TCCOR 1-E (emergency) is anticipated for midnight.

Here’s the TCCOR projection and wind-forecast timeline for Yokosuka via its official Facebook page:

9 p.m. Sunday, 40- to 46-mph sustained winds, 69-mph gusts. TCCOR 1-C until midnight.
Midnight Sunday, TCCOR 1-E issued. 52- to 58-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts.
10 a.m. Monday, TCCOR 1-E still in effect, 58- to 63-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts.
3 p.m. Monday, TCCOR 1-R (recovery issued), 23- to 29-mph sustained winds, 40-mph gusts.

Meanwhile, TCCOR 1 has been issued for Yokota Air Base; all Kanto Plain installations are now at least in TCCOR 1. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are anticipated within 12 hours.

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6 p.m. Sunday, Oct. 5, Guam time: Typhoon Vongfong has picked up forward speed, moving west-northwest at about 24 mph, and while Monday may be a wet and windy one, Vongfong should track through the Marianas rapidly if it remains on its current forecast track. Guam remains in Condition of Readiness 2; expect an upgrade to that soon.

But it’s also intensifying as it goes, and is forecast to pass 61 miles northeast of Andersen Air Force Base as a Category 2-equivalent cyclone, packing 115-mph sustained winds and 143-mph gusts at its center. The north part of Guam remains within the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s forecast 58-mph wind bands and the rest of the island within its 40-mph wind bands.

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5 p.m. Sunday, Oct. 5, Japan time: Typhoon Phanfone is picking up forward speed as it continues turning northeast, and is now forecast to pass just west of Yokosuka Naval Base, further inland over Tokyo at mid-morning Monday. That’s the bad news. The good news is, it should be in and out of the Tokyo area quickly should it remain on its current forecast track.
 
Phanfone is now forecast to track 30 miles northwest of Yokosuka, 12 miles south of Naval Air Facility Atsugi and Camp Zama and 22 miles south of Yokota Air Base at about 10 a.m. Monday. It should be packing sustained 81-mph winds and 98-mph gusts at its center if it retains its intensity, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest forecast track. The wind values for Kanto Plain bases should mirror those, according to local forecasts.
 
Yokosuka Naval Base and Naval Air Facility Atsugi are now in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1. Other U.S. bases in the Kanto Plain remain in TCCOR 2.
 
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4:30 p.m. Sunday, Oct. 5, Japan time: Yokota Air Base announced it has entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2 on its official Facebook page. DODDS schools at Yokota will be closed to students on Monday, DODDS officials said. Employees might have to report to work if the base issues all clear by 11 a.m.
 
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3:30 p.m. Sunday, Oct. 5, Japan time: DODDS officials announced that schools in the Yokosuka Naval Base, Camp Zama and Naval Air Facility Atsugi communities will be closed for students on Monday due to the approach of Typhoon Phanfone. No call yet on Yokota.

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1 p.m. Sunday, Oct. 5, Guam time: Condition of Readiness 2 has been issued for Guam in anticipation of Typhoon Vongfong’s forecast pass north of the island early Monday morning. National Weather Service also has Guam and the other main Marianas Islands under a typhoon warning.

Vongfong is tracking more quickly than previous projections. Latest Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast track takes Vongfong 62 miles northeast of Andersen Air Force Base at around 4 a.m. Monday, a few hours faster than earlier forecasts. JTWC has Guam well within forecast 40-mph wind bands and the northern part of the island within forecast 58-mph wind bands.

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Noon Sunday, Oct. 5, Japan time: Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1 has been issued for Fleet Activities Yokosuka and its satellite properties and Naval Air Facility Atsugi, while Yokota Air Base has entered TCCOR 2.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center's latest forecast track takes Typhoon Phanfone 21 miles southeast of Yokosuka Naval Base at about 10 a.m. Monday.

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12:30 a.m. Sunday, Oct. 5, Guam time: Well, the news gets a little better for Guam and perhaps way better for Okinawa, if the latest Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast track holds.

 Vongfong has tracked further northwest than previous projections and is now forecast to head 64 miles northeast of Andersen Air Force Base at about 9 a.m. Monday; that’s about 30 miles north of the last projection. But at least the north part of Guam remains well within the JTWC’s forecast 58-mph wind bands and the entire island in the 40-mph wind bands. So Monday should still be very wet and windy.

 In the long term, there’s a great divide among dynamic computer models over where Vongfong will head. The models are in agreement over the next three days, but after that, JTWC says there’s a significant split, some models projecting a continued northwest track, others suggesting a curve north like the one Phanfone before it made. So Okinawa could be spared; then again, it might not. We’ll have to see. PST will keep an eye on it.

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11:15 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 4, Japan time: It gets worse for the Kanto Plain with every passing Joint Typhoon Warning Center update.

 Typhoon Phanfone continues tracking further northwest than previously forecast. JTWC projects Phanfone to begin tracking north over the next 12 hours, then curve sharply and rapidly northeast. Though wind shear and cooler sea-surface temperatures are expected to degrade Phanfone, it should still be a Category 1-equivalent cyclone as it chugs 17 miles southeast of Yokosuka Naval Base at about 9 a.m. Monday, packing 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts at its center.

 The only silver lining to that cloud is, Phanfone should be in and out of the Kanto Plain area rather rapidly as it is forecast to pick up forward speed as it heads northeast.

 Fleet Activities Yokosuka remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness II; expect that to upgrade at mid-morning Sunday. Yokota Air Base remains in TCCOR Storm Watch, while Naval Air Facility Atsugi remains in TCCOR 3; expect upgrade to those as well.

 Here’s the updated wind timeline for Yokosuka Naval Base; wind values have been increased due to Phanfone’s forecast proximity.
 ■ Sunday morning, 12- to 17-mph sustained, 29-mph gusts.
■ Sunday afternoon, 23- to 35-mph sustained, 46-mph gusts.
■ Sunday evening, 35- to 40-mph sustained, 58-mph gusts.
■ Late Sunday evening, 40- to 46-mph sustained, 69-mph gusts.
■ Overnight Sunday into early Monday, 52- to 58-mph sustained, 81-mph gusts.
■ Monday morning, 58- to 63-mph sustained, 98-mph gusts.
■ Noon Monday, 40- to 46-mph sustsained, 69-mph gusts.
■ Early Monday afternoon, 32- to 38-mph sustained, 52-mph gusts.
■ Late Monday afternoon, 23- to 29-mph sustained, 40-mph gusts.
■ Tapering off by Monday evening.
 
Wind values at inland bases should be less, depending on Phanfone’s forecast track.

 Regardless, this thing’s no joke, folks. Winds such as those can turn just about any innocuous objects into dangerous projectiles. Sunday’s the last chance to store or tie down loose objects, make that last-minute run to the Autoport, the ATM, the commissary, the Exchange, wherever you have to go to supply up. Get your safe on, Kanto.
 
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8:30 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 4, Japan time: Yokota Air Base on its official Facebook page says the base remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch. Sustained 46-mph winds, 63-mph gusts and 4 to 6 inches of rain are forecast for Yokota starting around 3 a.m. Monday for Typhoon Phanfone’s duration in the Kanto Plain. Facilities managers and housing residents are directed to tie down or store loose objects, such as lawn chairs, barbeque grills, patio furniture, even trampolines which can become airborne objects. Decision on reporting for work and school will be made Sunday afternoon. NAF Atsugi remains in TCCOR 3 and Fleet Activities Yokosuka in TCCOR 2.

5:30 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 4, Japan time: Commander Fleet Activities Yokosuka has directed Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2 for Yokosuka Naval Base and its satellite properties. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are anticipated within 24 hours.

 Phanfone had a very brief shelf life as a super typhoon, and has been downgraded to typhoon status in the last six hours by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

 The bad news is, Phanfone is now forecast to track closer to the Kanto Plain than previously projected – now just 16 miles southeast of Yokosuka, 38 miles southeast of Camp Zama and Naval Air Facility Atsugi and 48 miles southeast of Yokota Air Base, and later than previously forecast, around 10 a.m. Monday. It’s forecast to be packing sustained 92-mph winds and 115-mph gusts at its center.

 Here’s the wind forecast timeline according to CFAY Yokosuka’s weather Web page:

 Sunday early evening, 23- to 29-mph sustained winds, 46-mph gusts.
 Sunday late evening, 35- to 40-mph sustained winds, 58-mph gusts.
 Monday early morning, 46- to 52-mph sustained winds, 69-mph gusts.
 Monday mid-morning, 52- to 58-mph sustained winds, 81-mph gusts.
 Monday mid-day, 46- to 52-mph sustained winds, 69-mph gusts.
 and decreasing from that point forward.

 NAF Atsugi remains in TCCOR 3. Yokota remains in TCCOR Storm Watch. Expect upgrades to those, especially if Phanfone tracks even closer to Kanto.

 Get your safe on, Kanto.
 
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4 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 4, Japan time: Commander Fleet Activities Yokosuka has directed Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2 for Yokosuka Naval Base and its satellite properties. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are anticipated within 24 hours.

 

12:45 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 4, Japan time: Phanfone has intensified into a super typhoon. It is forecast to pass about 290 miles east of Okinawa at about 7 p.m. Saturday, then turn northeast, remaining on track to pass 77 miles southeast of Yokosuka Naval Base at about 7 a.m. Monday.

Fleet Activities Yokosuka and Naval Air Facility Atsugi remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3, while Yokota Air Base and U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in TCCOR Storm Watch. JTWC places Yokosuka just inside Phanfone’s 58-mph wind bands and the entire Kanto Plain well within its 40-mph wind bands.

Here’s the wind forecast timeline according to CFAY Yokosuka’s weather Web page:
■ Sunday early evening, 23- to 29-mph sustained winds, 46-mph gusts.
■ Sunday late evening, 35- to 40-mph sustained winds, 58-mph gusts.
■ Monday early morning, 46- to 52-mph sustained winds, 69-mph gusts.
■ Monday mid-morning, 52- to 58-mph sustained winds, 81-mph gusts.
■ Monday midday, 46- to 52-mph sustained winds, 69-mph gusts.
 
and decreasing from that point forward.
 
Time to prepare is now. Get your safe on, Kanto!

Read More
 

12:45 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 4, Japan time: Phanfone has intensified into a super typhoon. It is forecast to pass about 290 miles east of Okinawa at about 7 p.m. Saturday, then turn northeast, remaining on track to pass 77 miles southeast of Yokosuka Naval Base at about 7 a.m. Monday.
 
Fleet Activities Yokosuka and Naval Air Facility Atsugi remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3, while Yokota Air Base and U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in TCCOR Storm Watch. JTWC places Yokosuka just inside Phanfone’s 58-mph wind bands and the entire Kanto Plain well within its 40-mph wind bands.
 
Here’s the wind forecast timeline according to CFAY Yokosuka’s weather Web page:
 ■ Sunday early evening, 23- to 29-mph sustained winds, 46-mph gusts.
■ Sunday late evening, 35- to 40-mph sustained winds, 58-mph gusts.
■ Monday early morning, 46- to 52-mph sustained winds, 69-mph gusts.
■ Monday mid-morning, 52- to 58-mph sustained winds, 81-mph gusts.
■ Monday midday, 46- to 52-mph sustained winds, 69-mph gusts.
 
and decreasing from that point forward.
 
Time to prepare is now. Get your safe on, Kanto!
 
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3:30 a.m. Saturday, Oct. 4, Japan time: Things should get disquieting for Fleet Activities Yokosuka and its outlying properties starting Sunday evening into Monday.  CFAY and its properties remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3.
 
Pacific Storm Tracker is getting an early look at what type of winds Yokosuka can expect in the run-up. Here’s the wind forecast timeline according to CFAY Yokosuka’s weather Web page:
 ■ Sunday early evening, 23- to 29-mph sustained winds, 46-mph gusts.
■ Sunday late evening, 35- to 40-mph sustained winds, 58-mph gusts.
■ Monday early morning, 46- to 52-mph sustained winds, 69-mph gusts.
■ Monday mid-morning, 52- to 58-mph sustained winds, 81-mph gusts.
■ Monday mid-day, 46- to 52-mph sustained winds, 69-mph gusts.
 
and decreasing from that point forward.
 
Models are still miles apart as to what might actually occur. PST is keeping a sharp lookout.
 
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12:30 a.m. Saturday, Oct. 4, Japan time: Little has changed in the way of wind values for Okinawa and the Kanto Plain as Typhoon Phanfone gets set to round the edge of a sub-tropical ridge and begin turning northeast, on a forecast track that still takes it southeast of Yokosuka Naval Base come Monday.
 
As of 9 p.m. Friday, Phanfone is forecast to pass about 290 miles east of Kadena Air Base at about 5 p.m. Saturday as a Category 3-equivalent storm. Forecast winds remain 29-mph sustained and 40-mph gusts for the island. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch, as do Yokota Air Base and Naval Air Facility Atsugi in the Kanto area.
 
Next up is a grazing of Yokosuka, 86 miles southeast at around 7 a.m. Monday. The base remains in TCCOR 3 and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest track has Yokosuka well within Phanfone’s 40-mph windbands and right at the periphery of the 58-mph wind bands.
 
Still much uncertainty remains about when and where Phanfone will begin curving north and northeast, and how quickly it will move once it does. All of the above could change.
 
Regardless, the time to repair is running out. Get your safe on, Yokosuka!
 
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7:30 p.m. Friday, Oct. 3, Japan time: Yokota Air Base entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch at 6:30 p.m. Damaging winds of 58 mph or greater are not forecast to occur, but they’re keeping a close eye on Typhoon Phanfone due to its projected close proximity to Yokota come Monday.
 
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6:45 p.m. Friday, Oct. 3, Japan time: They continue to brace at Yokosuka Naval Base for a possible Monday morning visit by Typhoon Phanfone, although the latest Joint Typhoon Warning Center update indicates that Phanfone may track faster than earlier forecast after it makes its projected curve northeast sometime in the next day and a half.
 
But questions remain among the dynamic computer models about when that northeast curve will begin, and where Phanfone will be when it does. Some models indicate a quick turn northeast, others a slower curve, further west nearer Okinawa than previous projections.
 
Thus, U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch, as does Naval Air Facility Atsugi in the Kanto Plain. Fleet Activities Yokosuka remains in TCCOR 3 until 3 a.m. Sunday, with TCCOR expected Saturday evening or Sunday morning and TCCOR 1 on Sunday afternoon. See a list of potential service closings below, should TCCOR 1 be issued.
 
Phanfone is forecast to track some 90 miles southeast of Yokosuka Naval Base at about 6 a.m. Monday, three hours earlier than previous forecasts, packing sustained 86-mph winds and 106-mph gusts at its center.  Extended forecast projects Phanfone to track past Yokosuka rather quickly, so it could be there and gone in very short order. PST is keeping a sharp lookout.
 
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2 p.m. Friday, Oct. 3, Japan time: Commander Fleet Activities Yokosuka has directed Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3 for Yokosuka Naval Base and CFAY’s other properties, CFAY announced on its official Facebook page. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are possible within 48 hours. TCCOR 2 is anticipated Saturday evening, followed by TCCOR 1 by Sunday afternoon.
 
Naval Air Facility Atsugi entered TCCOR Storm Watch at 10 a.m. Friday.
 
CFAY's official Facebook page announced the following anticipated closures and other service disruptions for Monday:
 
Schools will likely be closed, as will the Exchange, mini-marts, commissary and base clubs. Expect the galley and fleet recreation center food court to be open. Child development center will be open to dependents of emergency essential personnel only. MWR facilities will reopen two hours after the all-clear is announced.
 
Onset of destructive winds is currently anticipated for early Monday morning. Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects Phanfone to pass 83 miles southeast of Yokosuka at about 7 a.m. Monday, packing Category 1-equivalent winds, 81-mph sustained and 98-mph gusts at its center. Yokosuka’s weather web page forecast calls for winds picking up overnight Saturday, 18- to 23-mph sustained winds and 35-mph gusts, increasing to 23- to 29-mph sustained winds and 40-mph gusts Sunday evening.
 
Time to initiate a general cleanup around house and office, pick up and bring inside any loose objects such as bicycles, grills and such. Disassemble trampolines and bring them inside as well. Make plans in the next day or so to visit the commissary, gasoline stand and ATM. Fill up the car and get enough currency to last three days, in case the power goes off for extended periods. Don't forget non-perishable food, bottled water, a portable radio and flashlight with batteries, diapers and food for your furry friends as well.
 
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9:30 a.m. Friday, Oct. 3, Japan time: Traffic is starting to build along Typhoon Boulevard.
 
A new tropical depression spawned overnight Thursday east of Pohnpei, and its initial Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast track takes it in the general direction of the Marianas Islands, north of Guam, as was the case with Phanfone. Too early to say where 19W might venture from there, but initial projections take it in Okinawa’s general direction as well. PST is keeping an eye on it.
 
As for Phanfone, it’s forecast to pass 350 miles east of Kadena Air Base at about 6 p.m. Saturday. Wind values remain the same, 30-mph sustained winds and 40-mph gusts forecast for Okinawa throughout Saturday; U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch.
 
Little change in the extended outlook; Phanfone is then forecast to turn northeast toward the Tokyo area, passing 100 miles southeast of Yokosuka Naval Base around mid-morning Monday. Yokosuka’s weather page calls for winds to begin increasing Sunday, between 23- and 29-mph sustained winds and 40-mph gusts expected Sunday evening. Fleet Activities Yokosuka and its properties remain in TCCOR 4.

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