Iwakuni in TCCOR Storm Watch

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Iwakuni in TCCOR Storm Watch

by: Dave Ornauer | .
Stars and Stripes | .
published: September 20, 2016
(Last updated at Noon Japan time)
 
Noon Tuesday, Sept. 20, Japan time: Malakas has picked up forward speed, trucking east-northeast at 24 mph, and still somehow remains -- for now -- a Category 1-equivalent typhoon, 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts at center.

Malakas has passed Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni to its south about mid-morning, and continues hurtling toward the Tokyo-Kanto Plain area. U.S. bases in the Kanto Plain are under Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch as a result.

While it continues to lost its wind punch, a lot of precipitation remains in this system. Tokyo and Kanagawa have already received bunches of rain and will continue to do so, on into Tuesday night, indeed all the way into Thursday.

As if the Tokyo-Kanto Plain area hadn't had enough rain the last month since Mindulle inundated the place. Especially Yokota's east side.

As it stands, Malakas is forecast to knife its way between Yokosuka Naval Base and Yokota early Wednesday morning as a middling -- and very rainy -- tropical storm. It should then head back out over the ocean and die out sometime Thursday.
 
6 a.m. Tuesday, Sept. 20, Japan time: Malakas remains a Category 1-equivalent typhoon, packing 86-mph sustained winds and 104-mph gusts, as it exits Kyushu. It should roll past Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni sometime Tuesday morning, then rumble headlong toward Tokyo as a middling tropical storm early Wednesday morning, 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts forecast.

Iwakuni and Naval Air Facility Atsugi remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch.

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7 p.m. Monday, Sept. 19, Japan time: Little change to Malakas, which has maintained 121-mph sustained winds and 150-mph gusts at center thanks to high ocean heat content. Malakas remains on course to crash ashore over southeastern Kyushu just past midnight, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

Fleet Activities Sasebo and Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni each remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch.

Malakas is due to pass 121 miles south-southeast of Sasebo around 1 a.m. Tuesday and 108 miles south-southeast of Iwakuni eight hours later, maintaining Category 1-equivalent typhoon strength as it traverses east-northeast along the edges of Honshu.

Sasebo can expect sustained 35- to 40-mph winds and 63-mph gusts around midnight into the early morning Tuesday, according to CFAS' official Facebook page. Expect similar conditions at Iwakuni.

Up north, Naval Air Facility Atsugi is also in TCCOR Storm Watch. Malakas should maintain middling tropical-storm strength, 35-mph sustained winds and 46-mph gusts as it rolls through the Kanto Plain early Wednesday morning.
 
1:45 p.m. Monday, Sept. 19, Japan time: Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni has been placed in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch. Strong winds and between 1-1½ inches of rain are forecast for Iwakuni on Tuesday morning.
 
1 p.m. Monday, Sept. 19, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa have resumed seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4 at 12:35 p.m. Monday. Peak winds on island associated with Typhoon Malakas were 29-mph sustained and 43-mph gusts at 10 a.m. Monday.
 
Noon Monday, Sept. 19, Japan time: Fleet Activities Sasebo has entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch.
 
Typhoon Malakas continues to whirl northeast and away from Okinawa; U.S. bases there remain in TCCOR Storm Watch, just in case.
 
Malakas has apparently peaked at 121-mph sustained winds and 150-mph gusts and could bring quite a wallop to southeastern Kyushu as it makes its way over land sometime Monday evening.
 
If Malakas remains on its current course, its expected to plow ashore around midnight, passing 130 miles south-southeast of Sasebo at 1 a.m. Tuesday, packing 115-mph sustained winds and 144-mph gusts.
 
Sasebo should be outside of Malakas' 58-mph wind bands. But the city and surrounding areas are in a flood warning.
 
Malakas should remain a Category 1-equivalent typhoon as it roars 122 miles south-southeast of Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni at 9 a.m. Tuesday, still packing 86-mph sustained winds and 104-mph gusts. No upgraded TCCOR is in place at Iwakuni.
 
Malakas should then pick up rapid forward speed, diminishing as it heads east-northeast toward U.S. bases in the Kanto Plain as a middling tropical storm, 46-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts as it passes.
 
 
6:45 a.m. Monday, Sept. 19, Japan time: Typhoon Malakas has begun edging northeast of Okinawa, but it continues intensifying, up to Category 3-equivalent strength, and could remain a Cat 2-equivalent typhoon when it makes forecast landfall over Kyushu late Monday into Tuesday.
 
At 3 a.m., Malakas was 371 miles southwest of Sasebo Naval Base, trucking northeast at 13 mph, packing 121-mph sustained winds and 150-mph gusts at center. According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Malakas should have already made its closest point of approach to Okinawa at 183 miles northwest at 4 a.m.
 
Malakas has remained over warm sea surface the last day or so, which explains the re-intensification. JTWC projects Malakas to be carrying 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts as it nicks the southeast coast of Kyushu around midnight Monday.
 
Malakas is due to pass 125 miles south-southeast of Sasebo around midnight Monday; Fleet Activities Sasebo remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3, and Sasebo City has posted a flood warning.
 
And Malakas should remain a Category 1-equivalent typhoon as it passes 115 miles south-southeast of Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni at mid-morning Tuesday. And should remain a middling tropical storm as it takes aim at the Tokyo-Kanto Plain area into mid-morning Tuesday, it should retain that much intensity. Unpredictable bugger, this one is.
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